Các lĩnh vực được hy vọng sẽ tăng giá trị đầu tư nhiều lần

Preferred sectors for foreign funds: banking, securities, and information technology

Mr. Michael Kokalari – Director of Macroeconomic Analysis and Market Research, VinaCapital – believes that after a challenging year, there are signs indicating a strong economic recovery for Vietnam in 2024.

This is driven by the recovery of the manufacturing sector and the improved consumer sentiment. The decrease in interest rates in 2023 will also support the recovery of the real estate market, similar to how it supported the stock market.

It is expected that the profits of listed companies will increase by 10-15% in 2024, but the profit differences among sectors will be significant.

For example, the profits of listed consumer companies may have decreased by more than 20% last year due to reduced consumer spending in Vietnam and are forecasted to increase by more than 30% this year as sentiment and spending recover. Similarly, profits of real estate developers (excluding Vinhomes) may recover from a 50% decline last year to over 100% growth this year.

Mr. Michael Kokalari favors certain sectors this year such as information technology, banking, real estate, non-essential consumer goods companies, and securities.

Therefore, consumer companies will benefit from the ongoing recovery in consumer spending in Vietnam. VinaCapital expects the profits of this sector to recover from a 22% decline in 2023 to a 33% increase this year.

Real estate developers will benefit from modest recovery in real estate development activities. This aligns with the government’s forecast and is expected to lead to a recovery in sector profits from a 51% decline to a 109% increase.

For the securities sector, stable interest rates are expected, and investors will focus on profit growth and stock valuation, supporting market growth at the beginning of the year. Profit of securities companies is forecasted to increase rapidly, from a 14% increase in 2023 to 38% this year.

Banking stocks will benefit from profit growth, from around 7% in 2023 to 18% in 2024, and Vietnam’s banking stock valuation is currently lower than one standard deviation from the 5-year average.

Bank profits are expected to be boosted by rapid credit growth for both real estate developers and new homebuyers, in line with expectations of modest real estate development recovery this year.

Individual investor preferences remain crucial

Domestic securities companies also offer various recommendations on promising sectors, based on analytical data.

ACB Securities Company (ACBS) recommends scenarios where the VN-Index fluctuates within 1,000-1,280 points, investors may choose sectors and companies with optimistic profit prospects for 2024, not heavily dependent on economic recovery expectations, with healthy financial conditions and attractive valuations. The sectors include technology, industrial real estate, oil and gas, chemicals, and public investment.

In cases where the VN-Index fluctuates between 1,140-1,400 points, investors should prioritize cash flow strategies, focusing on large-cap sectors with attractive or historically cheap valuations, capable of absorbing large capital inflows and having profit recovery prospects compared to the previous year such as banking, real estate, retail, and consumer goods.

VnDirect Securities Company believes that some export products such as steel and wood have recovered in the fourth quarter of 2023 and this recovery momentum may be maintained in the following quarters. Textiles, garments, and seafood may recover later from around mid-2024. The seaport and logistics sectors may also benefit as cargo volume increases.

Along with the recovery in the manufacturing sector, employment and wages are expected to improve in 2024. Furthermore, the government will implement wage reforms from mid-2024 (expected total spending in 2024 is $3.1 billion) and maintain some fiscal stimulus packages to support the economy, including a 2% VAT reduction (worth $1.0 billion) in the first half of 2024. The report states that essential consumer goods manufacturing companies will be the earliest beneficiaries.

The real estate market is also beginning to recover in 2024 from a low base and stronger recovery towards the end of the year. In addition, a sharp decrease in lending rates will boost housing demand, helping improve the financial performance of real estate companies. The company prefers the affordable/mid-range housing segment as it has high demand and absorption rates. This segment is also more sensitive to interest rates.

TS Lê Anh Tuấn, Investment Director of foreign fund Dragon Capital, believes that sectors such as securities, real estate, and even corporate bonds will provide better investment returns in 2024 in a low-interest rate environment with certain economic recovery.

Investment preferences and risk tolerance levels vary for each individual, but in a low-interest rate environment, Mr. Tuấn suggests that investors should have a higher risk tolerance. For young individuals with limited funds, risk tolerance may be higher, choosing to invest regularly in equity funds. Older individuals preparing for retirement may choose to invest in bond funds.